Wednesday, January 02, 2008

It's Iowa Caucus Time!

OK, here we go, time to step out on that limb.
My predictions for tomorrow night's Iowa Caucuses:
________________________
~~~ Democratic Party ~~~
        1. Barack Obama
        2. John Edwards
        3. Hillary Clinton
________________________
Obviously, the race is extremely tight between the top three candidates here, but if there is going to be something different than this configuration, I think it will be a switch between Edwards and Obama, with Hillary remaining in third. I think both Obama and Edwards will benefit from their respective "change" and populist messages, as well as from increased general and first-time caucus goer turnout (helped by clear weather and the hype of this election season). I also don't see how any other candidate has a chance of breaking into the top three here.
________________________
~~~ Republican Party ~~~
        1. Mitt Romney
        2. Mike Huckabee
        3. John McCain
________________________
Similarly, the race is very tight between Romney and Huckabee, so another likely scenario could be a switch between the two of them. It really seems to be a choice between two candidates with their own set of political flaws: Romney seems to be the "stronger" presidential candidate (financially and stylistically), but his Mormonism and flip-flop background may hurt him; Huckabee is the proud Christian Conservative, but his political expertise has seemed lacking at times. Also, I'm going with McCain in the #3 spot, but wouldn't be shocked to see the slippery Ron Paul come close to a third place finish here.

1 comment:

Mr. Cooper said...

Ah, we almost agree. Swap the one and two spots in both, but I was very tempted to predict a Romney win.