Saturday, August 30, 2008

Palin Pick A Potentially Serious Political Problem, From Reporters Across The Ideological Spectrum

"Think about what the Palin pick really says about how McCain views this campaign and how he views his potential responsibilities in national security. Think about what it says about the sincerity of McCain's own central criticism of Obama these past two months in foreign affairs. Think about how he picked a woman to be a heartbeat away from a war presidency who hadn't even thought much, by her own admission, about the Iraq war as late as 2007. Think about how he made this decision barely knowing the woman...Think about how the key factor in this decision was not who could defend this country were something dreadful happen to McCain in office but how to tread as much on Obama's convention bounce and use women's equality as a wedge issue among Democrats because it might secure a few points here or there. Oh, and everyone would be surprised...This is his sense of honor and judgment. This is his sense of responsibility and service. Here's the real slogan the McCain campaign should now adopt: Putting. Country. Last."

---Andrew Sullivan, The Atlantic


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"...Maybe it will work. But maybe (and at least as likely) it will reinforce a theme that I'd be pounding home if I were the Obama campaign: that it's John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance. Here's I fear the worst harm that may be done by this selection. The McCain campaign's slogan is "country first." It's a good slogan, and it aptly describes John McCain, one of the most self-sacrificing, gallant, and honorable men ever to seek the presidency. But question: If it were your decision, and you were putting your country first, would you put an untested small-town mayor a heartbeat away from the presidency?"

---David Frum,
National Review

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"...Palin's odds of emerging unscathed this fall are slim. In fact, she's been all but set up for failure. 'What is it exactly that the vice president does all day?' Palin offhandedly asked CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow in July. Kudlow explained that the job has become more important in recent years. Palin knows the energy crisis well, even if her claim on 'Charlie Rose' that Alaska's untapped resources can significantly ease it is unsupported by the facts. But what does she know about Iranian nukes, health care or the future of entitlement programs? And that's just a few of the 20 or so national issues on which she will be expected to show basic competence. The McCain camp will have to either let her wing it based on a few briefing memos (highly risky) or prevent her from taking questions from reporters (a confession that she's unprepared). Either way, she's going to belly-flop at a time when McCain can least afford it.

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[See also Rameseh Pannuru's of National Review; Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic reporting about Republican strategists' reactions.]

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Thursday, August 28, 2008

[DNC 08] Day 4: The Main Event


Most Looking Forward To: Gee, I wonder...maybe Barack Obama speaking to a crowd of over 80,000 people in Denver and tens of millions of American viewers at home and around the globe !?!?!? Plus, it's always exciting to listen to Al Gore give an intellectually rousing speech, so that should serve as a nice layer of icing on the massive, glorious, historic cake that is Obama's speech tonight.

Least Looking Forward To: The embarrassment that will be the Republican Party convention in St. Paul next week.

*** Watch online HERE! **
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[UPDATE (Friday, 11:30AM): Wow, I'm speechless right now. I cannot believe McCain is going to pick Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his VP. I've always said that if McCain picks a woman or minority candidate for VP that offers little experience, and little else aside from their gender or race, that this would backfire in the long run as a shallow ploy. Not to mention that there have to be about a half a dozen other republican politicians that feel disgusted that they were past over for what many would characterize as a glorified PTA mom. The fact that Palin is under state investigation only makes it that much more amaazing that she would be chosen.]

P.S.
My prediction for McCain's VP announcement tomorrow? I'll go with Missouri Governor Tim Pawlenty, easily one of the most politically safe, media-boring choices for McCain (considering his other top contenders are a Republican primary nemesis that's a Mormon and a pro choice, former Democratic vice presidential candidate). It's quite a dilemma for McCain: he can't risk picking someone quite as "exotic" as Mitt Romney or Joe Liebermann, for fear of retribution from the conservative base, and therefore he must choose someone like Pawlenty who will, however, provide very little excitement and attention for the campaign.

Thus, it appears that boring and safe will trump unique and risky for the McCain campaign, but we shall see for sure at McCain's announcement tomorrow where, by the way, he will be celebrating his birthday. Recognizing that age, whether fairly or unfairly, is a potential liability for the McCain campaign, I'm not sure how wise it is to reveal your VP selection on the same day that your candidate is celebrating his 72nd birthday. I guess the McCain campaign, and the Republican Party as a whole, have greater issues to attend to at the moment...like hurricanes.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

[DNC 08] Day 2 & 3: The Return Of The Clintons


Most Looking Forward To: Hillary Clinton...Bill Clinton...Joe Biden...1-2-3 punch, anyone? More importantly, these two nights of the convention will successfully and undoubtedly represent the passing of the political torch from the Democratic royalty of the Clintons to the new political generation of Barack Obama.

Least Looking Forward To: The ongoing meltdown at MSNBC, in which it appears that Keith Olbermann has pissed off 95% of the news division, Chris Matthews has continued to demonstrate his skill for the nonsensical, Joe Scarborough has renewed his "you wouldn't like me when I'm angry" retort to liberal arguments, and the rest of the NBC family has and will continue to watch as this media train derails in Denver.

*** Watch online HERE! ***

Monday, August 25, 2008

[DNC 08] Day 1 in Denver: Introductions


Most Looking Forward To:
Both Michelle Obama's primetime speech (hopefully accompanied by her extremely adorable children) and the highly anticipated revelation of whether or not Ted Kennedy will make a speech, or just a thrilling appearance, at tonight's convention events.

Least Looking Forward To: Excessive cable news coverage of any and all messages delivered by random insane individuals roaming the streets of Denver. You know what I'm talking about...a group calling themselves 'Conservative Circus Performers for Tibet' comes marching down Main Street and reporters start drooling all over themselves thinking about the inevitably juicy interview they're going to get with the group's half-baked leader. I know crazy sells, but let's try and keep this to a minimum please. Plus, there'll be plenty of crazy to cover throughout all next week's news cycle when the Republicans arrive in St. Paul (ba-dum, chhh!).

*** Watch online HERE! ***

Thursday, August 14, 2008

And, Obama's Vice Presidential Pick Will Be...

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[UPDATE, 1:15AM Saturday, August 23: Called it, and almost a week and a half ago, before most in the media and blogosphere were leaning so hardcore towards Biden. Woo hoo!]
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... Senator Joe Biden, says I.

Let's back up for a moment to flesh this one out.

First, I should point out Mr. Cooper's Obama VP prediction post, in which he predicts that Wesley Clark will be chosen to be Obama's running mate. I must say I think this is a very interesting prediction, particularly given the influence of Clark as both a respected military guy and a former Clinton camp guy. However, if there is one fatal flaw in this prediction it may be that the Obama campaign has stated several times that their VP selection would be a predictable individual from the list of those they've admitted talking to and vetting over the past recent months. And, to the best of my knowledge, I don't believe I've ever heard the Obama campaign discussing Wes Clark as a serious VP candidate of their own short list (I've only heard his name being thrown around by the media and by former Clinton backers that liked the idea of a Clark or an Ed Rendell bridging the campaign gap between the Obama and Clinton camps). Thus, based on the notion that camp Obama will go with a self-acknowledged short-lister, I feel semi-comfortable narrowing the choices down to the following three: Governor Tim Kaine, Senator Evan Bayh, and Senator Joe Biden.

I've always felt that the notion of Tim Kaine as a VP candidate was never quite as likely as the media has been making it out to be, one of those picks that seems to meet all of the sufficient criteria and still lacks that essential, yet unidentifiable, factor that would make him the right choice (not to mention the fact that Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner being selected as the keynote speaker of the Democratic convention might make a Virginian VP candidate just a bit too much Virginia for one convention). Evan Bayh, on the other hand, is certainly an attractive choice for VP and, again, could provide that bridge to the now-defunct Clinton camp mentioned above. However, a potentially significant flaw, particularly for the active anti-war segment of the Democratic Party, is Bayh's enthusiastic support for the authorization to go to war in Iraq (even joining President Bush and Senator McCain in the Rose Garden ceremony to announce the authorization back in 2002). This could certainly prove to be a problem for Senator Obama, after spending the larger part of the primary season discussing his judgment on the issue of Iraq, while consequently pointing to Senator Clinton's lack of judgment, only to turn around and choose a pro-Iraq war authorization VP candidate like Bayh.

Thus, we are left with the quality choice of Senator Joe Biden as Obama's vice presidential pick. Biden presents himself as a solid pick for various reasons: political experience to beef up the Democratic ticket; military/foreign policy experience to counter McCain's supposed strong area (I can only imagine the tenacity of a VP candidate Biden taking on the audacious statements and actions of McCain regarding the Georgia-Russia conflict over the past several days); a seasoned, older (but not too old) politician to attempt to appeal to older voters on the campaign trail; a solid debate performer for the scheduled VP debate; a respected politician, in terms of fellow politicians during the rest of the campaign as well as longer term planning for effective executive branch governance. On a more personal note, it appears that although he may have been a bit irked by Obama's seeking the presidency at such a politically early point in his career, it seems as though Biden has gained respect for Obama over the long course of the campaign season and is now likely very eager and willing to occupy that VP slot with Obama. And the cons about picking Biden? I expect two major issues have been tossed around the VP selection committee regarding Biden: his established record of vocal bluntness and the potential for Biden to overshadow Obama with his own impressive political resume. In response, I guess I can only say that any VP candidate will have some potential liabilities, but I think both of these can be turned positively for Biden in a presidential campaign. Yes, Biden can end up delivering a puzzling line or two, but he can also deliver the Rudy Giuliani "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" line to great political effect; in other words, a sharp tongue may just prove to be beneficial against a McCain campaign that has already demonstrated just how snarky/non-substantive it's willing to be (celebrity mocking, anyone?). And, with regard to Biden's credentials overshadowing Obama, I think Obama would be as successful in hiding his relative newness to national politics as he would be in hiding his black background, so it seems rather unnecessary to shy away from an experienced VP candidate on such grounds (especially when weighed relative to the explicit benefits of having that kind of experience in your second-in-command).

There you have it. I expect Barack Obama will announce Senator Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate, and I'll even go one step further with my prediction and state that the announcement of his pick (text message and all) will be made next Monday, August 18th (and if not on that date then on either Tuesday the 19th or Wednesday the 20th).

And, as always, if my prediction is incorrect, I simply demand that I be given back the time it took me to write this blog post so that I may spend it more wisely...I've barely had time to watch the Yankees chances for making it to the post-season slip further and further away.

Friday, August 08, 2008

"The Celebrity" vs. "The Centenarian"

Priceless.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

The cover of the new Madden 09 game coming out next Tuesday, featuring Brett Favre...in a Packers uniform. Awkward much?

In all honesty, this is actually a marketing blessing for both EA and video game retailers. Just take a look at Gamestop.com where, within there wall-to-wall coverage of the Madden 09 release, they already have digital renderings posted up of "Broadway Brett" in a Jets uniform...classic.

Back to Blogging

Ladies and gentlemen (and Mr. Cooper): my blogging vacation has officially come to its conclusion. Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah!

Don't worry, nothing of great interest has taken place over the past couple of months...just the end of my first year of graduate school, the purchase of my first home, my wedding, and my honeymoon in California...you know, the regular day-to-day stuff.

You may or may not have noticed some visual changes to the blog, depending upon just how boring your days really are. I figured I'd go with the blue palette, for now, as a tribute to the Democratic Party for the upcoming general election season. Corny, you say? Well, I'll just respond by pointing out how rude you are, sir or madam. Please leave the blog immediately.

It's definitely fun blogging again, and I'll end by mentioning just how awesome it is that there are less than 90 days left until what I like to refer to as 'political Christmas', aka the upcoming general election. Huzzah!