And, Obama's Vice Presidential Pick Will Be...

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[UPDATE, 1:15AM Saturday, August 23: Called it, and almost a week and a half ago, before most in the media and blogosphere were leaning so hardcore towards Biden. Woo hoo!]

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... Senator Joe Biden, says I.

Let's back up for a moment to flesh this one out.

First, I should point out Mr. Cooper's Obama VP prediction post, in which he predicts that Wesley Clark will be chosen to be Obama's running mate. I must say I think this is a very interesting prediction, particularly given the influence of Clark as both a respected military guy and a former Clinton camp guy. However, if there is one fatal flaw in this prediction it may be that the Obama campaign has stated several times that their VP selection would be a predictable individual from the list of those they've admitted talking to and vetting over the past recent months. And, to the best of my knowledge, I don't believe I've ever heard the Obama campaign discussing Wes Clark as a serious VP candidate of their own short list (I've only heard his name being thrown around by the media and by former Clinton backers that liked the idea of a Clark or an Ed Rendell bridging the campaign gap between the Obama and Clinton camps). Thus, based on the notion that camp Obama will go with a self-acknowledged short-lister, I feel semi-comfortable narrowing the choices down to the following three: Governor Tim Kaine, Senator Evan Bayh, and Senator Joe Biden.

I've always felt that the notion of Tim Kaine as a VP candidate was never quite as likely as the media has been making it out to be, one of those picks that seems to meet all of the sufficient criteria and still lacks that essential, yet unidentifiable, factor that would make him the right choice (not to mention the fact that Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner being selected as the keynote speaker of the Democratic convention might make a Virginian VP candidate just a bit too much Virginia for one convention). Evan Bayh, on the other hand, is certainly an attractive choice for VP and, again, could provide that bridge to the now-defunct Clinton camp mentioned above. However, a potentially significant flaw, particularly for the active anti-war segment of the Democratic Party, is Bayh's enthusiastic support for the authorization to go to war in Iraq (even joining President Bush and Senator McCain in the Rose Garden ceremony to announce the authorization back in 2002). This could certainly prove to be a problem for Senator Obama, after spending the larger part of the primary season discussing his judgment on the issue of Iraq, while consequently pointing to Senator Clinton's lack of judgment, only to turn around and choose a pro-Iraq war authorization VP candidate like Bayh.

Thus, we are left with the quality choice of Senator Joe Biden as Obama's vice presidential pick. Biden presents himself as a solid pick for various reasons: political experience to beef up the Democratic ticket; military/foreign policy experience to counter McCain's supposed strong area (I can only imagine the tenacity of a VP candidate Biden taking on the audacious statements and actions of McCain regarding the Georgia-Russia conflict over the past several days); a seasoned, older (but not too old) politician to attempt to appeal to older voters on the campaign trail; a solid debate performer for the scheduled VP debate; a respected politician, in terms of fellow politicians during the rest of the campaign as well as longer term planning for effective executive branch governance. On a more personal note, it appears that although he may have been a bit irked by Obama's seeking the presidency at such a politically early point in his career, it seems as though Biden has gained respect for Obama over the long course of the campaign season and is now likely very eager and willing to occupy that VP slot with Obama. And the cons about picking Biden? I expect two major issues have been tossed around the VP selection committee regarding Biden: his established record of vocal bluntness and the potential for Biden to overshadow Obama with his own impressive political resume. In response, I guess I can only say that any VP candidate will have some potential liabilities, but I think both of these can be turned positively for Biden in a presidential campaign. Yes, Biden can end up delivering a puzzling line or two, but he can also deliver the Rudy Giuliani "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" line to great political effect; in other words, a sharp tongue may just prove to be beneficial against a McCain campaign that has already demonstrated just how snarky/non-substantive it's willing to be (celebrity mocking, anyone?). And, with regard to Biden's credentials overshadowing Obama, I think Obama would be as successful in hiding his relative newness to national politics as he would be in hiding his black background, so it seems rather unnecessary to shy away from an experienced VP candidate on such grounds (especially when weighed relative to the explicit benefits of having that kind of experience in your second-in-command).

There you have it. I expect Barack Obama will announce Senator Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate, and I'll even go one step further with my prediction and state that the announcement of his pick (text message and all) will be made next Monday, August 18th (and if not on that date then on either Tuesday the 19th or Wednesday the 20th).

And, as always, if my prediction is incorrect, I simply demand that I be given back the time it took me to write this blog post so that I may spend it more wisely...I've barely had time to watch the Yankees chances for making it to the post-season slip further and further away.