No More Bets

With both the Nevada caucuses and the Republican South Carolina primary being held tomorrow, I am now ready to declare my election predictions: for each of the parties, a candidate will come in first, another candidate will come in second, and some other candidate will finish in third. Yep, I went out on a limb.

The point I'm making here is that the races in both states are just too complex to throw out predictions that would be based on anything more than some shaky poll numbers and a large portion of guessing. There are, however a few things that can be said with some limited conviction, such as...

• An Obama win in Nevada will increase momentum for what many are already predicting will be an Obama victory in South Carolina next Saturday. This is best-case-scenario for the Obama campaign, namely three early state primary wins heading into "Super Duper Tuesday" (god, I hate that phrase, I apologize for even typing it).
• A first place finish for Hillary in Nevada will be viewed as an upset win over Obama, even though close poll numbers, equally heavy duty campaign organizations, and fierce endorsement battles would have us believe the race is pretty competitive (to be honest, setting up Hillary as "the underdog" in Nevada is about as solid an argument as characterizations that Mike Huckabee is "sane"......Me-1; Huckabee-0).
• If John Edwards is able to finish in a close third place in Nevada (or better?), his "There are still three candidates here!" assertions will retain their validity. An equivalent showing in South Carolina a week later may just give him enough strength to power through Super Dup...well, you know what day...and pick up enough delegates to hold some important political cards throughout the remainder of the Democratic primary. That being said, I think this will be very tough for Edwards to pull off (although, seeing how I think he's a good voice to have around in the primary process, here's hoping).
• A South Carolina victory for Mike Huckabee will be viewed as a triumph for religious conservatives (but, with all the confederate flag embracing and blurring of lines between Christianity and The Constitution, at what expense to a general election run?). Additionally (and potentially more impacting), this will be viewed as an unofficial win for Rudy Giuliani (even if he ends up with less votes in South Carolina than 'The General Lee') because it will only fan the flames of chaos that have swept through the Republican primary, preserving the continuously slimming viability of the 'Giuliani takes off with a victory in Florida' scenario.
• If John McCain manages to pull out the win in South Carolina, we may begin to see McCain becoming the candidate Republican movers and shakers finally start coalescing around in a more pronounced manner. Then again, I'm not completely convinced this will be the case, mostly because the margin of victory may be too slim, because a couple of electoral victories may not be enough for the Republican establishment to wholly overlook their problems with McCain, and because there is still the Giuliani wild card to be played.

And, there you have it. Good luck to the Democratic caucus goers of Nevada, good luck to the chaotic winds of the Republican primary, and, most importantly, good luck to Senator Obama. Here's hoping for a victory in Nevada!