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~~~ Democratic Party ~~~
- Barack Obama
- John Edwards
- Hillary Clinton
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Obviously, the race is extremely tight between the top three candidates here, but if there is going to be something different than this configuration, I think it will be a switch between Edwards and Obama, with Hillary remaining in third. I think both Obama and Edwards will benefit from their respective "change" and populist messages, as well as from increased general and first-time caucus goer turnout (helped by clear weather and the hype of this election season). I also don't see how any other candidate has a chance of breaking into the top three here.
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~~~ Republican Party ~~~
- Mitt Romney
- Mike Huckabee
- John McCain
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Similarly, the race is very tight between Romney and Huckabee, so another likely scenario could be a switch between the two of them. It really seems to be a choice between two candidates with their own set of political flaws: Romney seems to be the "stronger" presidential candidate (financially and stylistically), but his Mormonism and flip-flop background may hurt him; Huckabee is the proud Christian Conservative, but his political expertise has seemed lacking at times. Also, I'm going with McCain in the #3 spot, but wouldn't be shocked to see the slippery Ron Paul come close to a third place finish here.
1 comment:
Ah, we almost agree. Swap the one and two spots in both, but I was very tempted to predict a Romney win.
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