Countdown To Election Day

Here we are, less than 24 hours until election day, and the American public is abuzz with a veritable cornucopia of news stories: President Bush claims Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld are doing "an excellent job", the outing of a gay drug-using evangelical leader that earned a living bashing gays, Saddam Hussein sentenced to death by hanging, the release of the sequel to John Kerry's 2004 Presidential race entitled John Kerry: Re-Swifted, the call from all four branches of the military media for President Bush to fire Donald Rumsfeld, allegations that President Bartlett has been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis...wait, that last one was from The West Wing, cross it off.

Analysis of all House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races of the 2006 midterm elections have kept the political punditry on their toes. The New York Times has prepared an interactive elections site that is one of the most comprehensive, user-friendly sites out there.

Based on the election coverage I've been following, there appears to be consensus on the following points:

• Democrats will most likely retake control of the House...whether it's by a small margin or a tidal wave of seat changes has yet to be determined.

• Democrats have a chance of gaining the majority in the Senate...however, the most recent polls are showing that the window of opportunity may be closing for the Democrats, making a 50D-50R Senate or a 49D-51R Senate likely alternatives.

• Democrats will end up with a majority of Governorships across the country...this may not seem important, but this can greatly impact the Presidential campaigns of 2008.

Considering how I've basically plugged the MSNBC election feed coverage directly into my brain for the past two weeks, I've decided to take a stab at calling some of these elections on my own.

Below are 12 Senate races to watch on election night (actually, for a couple of them it's pretty clear who the winner will be, but I just couldn't pass up the opportunity to mock a few choice politicians). Of course, there is one stipulation in my predictions: if I'm wrong on any of these predictions, I'll happily hide behind the following purposefully ambiguous statement...That's politics!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Arizona Senate Race --> Jim Pederson(D) v. Jon Kyl(R)...I actually don't know much about this race, but over the past day or so the pundits have discussed an outside chance of Pederson surprising in this race. Based on the polling, I'm skeptical but I certainly wouldn't mind being proven wrong.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Jon Kyl]

• Connecticut Senate Race --> Ned Lamont(D) v. Alan Schlesinger(R) v. Joe Lieberman(I)...After the Democratic primary, it looked like Lamont had done the unthinkable and booted Lieberman, a highly respected yet overly-hawkish Bush-kisser, from the Senate; looks like Lieberman will have the last laugh by actually winning the seat as an Independent (who BETTER caucus with the Democrats like he promised...no funny business Senator!). By the way, is there any way to nominate Alan Schlesinger for the 'Sorriest Republican Senatorial Candidate' Award?
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Joe Lieberman]

• Florida Senate Race--> Bill Nelson(D) v. Katherine Harris(R)...Wow, just wow. I guess you have to give Harris credit for being "optimistic" when she's trailing in the polls by more than 30 points. Then again, if you're the Republican leadership, optimism is the last thing on your mind while you have visions of strangling Harris for entering this Senate race in the first place (not to mention the House seat Harris left to pursue the Senate, which will most likely get picked up by the Democrats).
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Bill Nelson]

• Maryland Senate Race--> Ben Cardin(D) v. Michael Steele(R)...This is much closer than it should be for a Maryland Senatorial Race involving a Republican candidate that is very much a traditional conservative Republican (some say it's because he's running a great campaign...I say it's because he's purposefully never once mentioned on his website or in any of his speeches that he's a Republican, AND he's printed bumper stickers that say "Steele: Democrat"). Still, this is Maryland and I think a lukewarm Cardin will retain the edge.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Ben Cardin]

• Montana Senate Race--> Jon Tester(D) v. Conrad Burns(R)...One of several Senate seats in a statistical tie, this is a difficult race to call. I'm going to assume that the anti-Republican sentiment sweeping the nation will be enough to keep some voters that would have voted for Burns away from the polls. Plus, I'd give anything to see Tester speak in the Senate chamber with his Full Metal Jacket-inspired haircut.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Jon Tester]

• Missouri Senate Race-->Claire McCaskill(D) v. Jim Talent(R)...In my opinion, this is the most difficult race to call out of all of the Senate races. It has been a statistical tie for quite some time, and I almost want to chicken out and say "too close to call"...but I won't. A part of me sees the Michael J. Fox stem cell research advertisement saga as a benefit to McCaskill, but then again I don't know that the national sentiment will match the local sentiment. What I do know is that Missouri is supposed to be a micro-representation of our national political climate so, assuming that's true, the climate is currently cold to the Republican Party. But this is really anyone's race.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Claire McCaskill]

• New Jersey Senate Race--> Robert Menendez(D) v. Thomas Kean, Jr.(R)...This race is the definition of 'ugly politics', abundant in ethical federal investigations and negative attack ads that would make Karl Rove wince (in actuality, Rove is smiling in delight over the chance to take this Senate seat from the Democrats). The polls may be closer than expected, and the Kean name may be big in NJ politics, but New Jersey is the unofficial headquarters for anti-Bush/anti-Iraq War sentiments. I just don't see how Menendez loses this seat, even though he is, at best, a weak candidate.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Menendez]

• Ohio Senate Race--> Sherrod Brown (D) v. Mike Dewine(R)...Dewine has been hit hard by the anti-Republican force in this election season (plus, the economic woes of Ohio certainly aren't helping). At this point, it's pretty clear that Brown has a good grip on this race...he also has an extremely unique first name.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Sherrod Brown]
  

• Pennsylvania Senate Race--> Robert Casey(D) v. Rick Santorum(R)...Can you say "huge loss for the Republicans"? Santorum has been so busy trying to find those non-existent WMD's over in Iraq, his seat got stolen right from under his nose by Casey. The only way Santorum can win this race is if Robert Casey is actually Osama Bin Laden in disguise. And, even then...
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Casey]

• Rhode Island Senate Race--> Sheldon Whitehouse(D) v. Lincoln Chafee(R)...It's the battle of the WASPS! Unfortunately for Democrats, Chafee is a household name in Rhode Island thanks to the legacy of his father. Chafee has managed to close the gap in the past few days but, just like with the other close Senate races, this just isn't a good year to be a Republican.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Sheldon Whitehouse]

• Tennessee Senate Race--> Harold Ford(D) v. Bob Corker(R)...Harold Ford had a shot as the first African American Tennessee Senator since the reconstruction era, but a controversial ad involving a half-naked Caucasian woman whispering "Harold...call me" and some confrontational moments between Ford and Corker has unfortunately given Corker the edge he'll need to win this race.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: Bob Corker]

• Virginia Senate Race--> Jim Webb(D) v. George Allen(R)...Let's all thank Allen for introducing the word 'macaca' to the English lexicon. In a nut shell, this election has been a disaster for Allen, a once-strong candidate for the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee. This race is a statistical tie, and I'd love to give the edge to Webb, but for some reason I expect Allen, the candidate that tried to hide the fact that he had Jewish ancestry, to end up winning with Virginia voters.
  [PREDICTED WINNER: George Allen]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------