Facts? Nah. Intelligence? No thanks. A Hunch From The "Gut"? Bingo.

It turns out we all may be as qualified for the position of Homeland Security Secretary as current Secretary Michael Chertoff, who made this statement while discussing the U.S. terrorism risk during the summer:

[I believe we're entering a period this summer of increased risk. We've seen a lot more public statements from Al Qaeda. There are a lot of reasons to speculate about that but one reason that occurs to me is that they're feeling more comfortable and raising expectations. In the last August, and in prior summers, we've had attacks against the West, which suggests that summer seems to be appealing to them. I think we do see increased activity in South Asia, so we do worry about whether they are rebuilding their capabilities. We've struck at them and degraded them, but they rebuild. All these things have given me kind of a gut feeling that we are in a period of increased vulnerability (Chicago Tribune, July 10th).]

Ok, I find several major problems with this statement:

1. If we're "entering a period this summer of increased risk" why haven't the terrorist threat levels changed? This either means that we're actually not entering such a marked period of "increased risk" (in which case Secretary Chertoff is a fearmonger) or the threat level system is a joke (in which case Secretary Chertoff is incompetent). Both can actually be true at the same time, by the way.
2. Why would our Homeland Security Secretary be "speculating" about anything? How about we talk in terms of facts and calculated assessments rather than speculations. Oh, right...because facts and intelligence are complex, whereas lies...sorry, "speculations"...can be crafted easily.
3. How exactly are we "striking" and "degrading" Al Qaeda when they're highly concentrated in areas other than Iraq (including Afghanistan and Pakistan). Al Qaeda is rebuilding in those areas we used to/should be fighting them in. Of the effective elements of Al Qaeda that have moved into Iraq, let's not forget who sent them an invitation marked "Chaos in Iraq...RSVP by Spring 2003".
4. Why are the activities of the Department of Homeland Security being guided by "gut feelings"? Again, is the department so incompetent that it is not possible to gather levels of information higher than the ranking of "gut feeling"? And, should matters that have the potential to gravely affect the lives of countless Americans be headed by someone who characterizes his professional assessments as feelings of his inner bowels?