I've been following Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill since the early days of the Obama presidential campaign, and I think it's fair to say she's a rising political figure within the Democratic Party (check out her statements from the Senate floor today, regarding the disturbing $18 billion Wall Street bonuses, for a glimpse of her sharp political nature). In fact, I think McCaskill as Obama's VP would have been a real possibility, had it not been for the fact that such a pick would have been a sizeable slap in the face to Hillary Clinton; similarly, I think we could have seen McCaskill as an Obama cabinet member, however they likely agreed that McCaskill could server more effectively as a strong ally in the Senate.That takes us (assuming an Obama reelection in 2012) to the 2016 presidential election, where I believe 10-year U.S. Senator McCaskill (assuming her reelection in 2012) will indeed run for the Democratic presidential nomination. Certainly, her centrist political views, midwestern appeal, and compelling rhetorical abilities could all prove to be beneficial in a presidential campaign (not to mention the fact that she's strikingly similar to the first female president of this season's 24; considering the show's prescience with first African-American President David Palmer, this is hardly something to underestimate). Even more interesting would be the possibility that Hillary Clinton could once again take a shot in 2016 (something I think is very possible given her strong political drive, the potential for long lasting Democratic popularity/Republican chaos, and the notion that she was/is "next in line"...of course, she will in fact be turning 69 years old just one week before the 2016 election, so that could prove to be a potential topic of consideration...and, no, Clinton will not be running in 2012, let's just get over that political suicide fantasy right now). Furthermore, it's becoming more and more apparent that Sarah Palin will be throwing her $800 hat in the ring come 2012 (contending for the honor of 'Most Gimmicky Presidential Candidate', a distinction currently bestowed upon Rudolph "9/11" Giuliani), but maybe she'll stick around for 2016 as well, making it an amazingly gender-infused presidential election cycle.
On a related "politicians to keep your eye on" note, I believe Mayor Cory Booker of Newark, New Jersey is a political star on the rise. The week of Barack Obama's presidential election win last November, Booker could be seen and heard being interviewed by just about every television and print media outlet. He's intelligent, compelling, and politically responsible for arguably one of the toughest cities in the country...and he's glowingly bald! Even more interesting, Booker will be
47 years old in 2016, which is the precise age of...yep, you guessed it...President Barack Obama. As beautiful as that political narrative symmetry may be, I actually think Booker will spend more time gaining political experience in some other political office (possibly eyeing the someday vacated U.S. Senate seat of Frank Lautenberg, or less likely the NJ governship, either of which would prove to be great campaigns to follow), eventually considering organizing a presidential campaign in, say, 2024.Oh, how I enjoy making political prediction several decades into the future!
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3 comments:
A presidential candidate with 4 years in the Senate and VP candidate with 2 wouldn't have been a very strong ticket. I am of the mindset that Hillary will definitely run in 2016, and McCaskill would just be viewed as the poor man's Hillary Clinton. Plus, I really can't get over the fact that she supported Obama in the primary because her daughter told her too. That said, I saw her in the hallway the other day, so that was cool.
Also, my prediction on Booker is that Corzine loses to Christie in 2009 and then Booker wins the governorship back in 2013. You heard it here first. I think he wants to be governor, and I don't think he's gonna wait another 6 years for Lautenberg to retire, and there are a lot of other people in line for that Senate seat -- Pallone wants it bad.
The hypothetical ticket would have definitely been too inexperienced. But the political partnership started early between McCaskill and Obama largely due to the "it's time for fresh political leaders" rhetoric Obama was offering, appealing to the freshman senator herself; obviously, the "my daughter loved him" anecdote was a cute sound bite for the media, plus an attempted effort to distract from the "not supporting the woman candidate" question, but there was always a deeper political philosophical partnership there between the two relatively new kids on the senate block.
That said, I totally agree that McCaskill will come off as the poor man's Hillary Clinton, but I think she'll still put together a run for the nomination so that she can attempt to lay a foundational claim on some future opportunity (whether that be a later presidential run or, more likely, a position working for the first female president. And, as always, I hate you for your cool D.C. encounters! haha
Very interesting for NJ governor, particularly because if he can pull it off, Booker could definitely be setting himself on the path for a future presidential run, which would be very exciting for NJ. We shall see!
Anyone still here? I love this parlor game.
I think Hillary's success will encourage other women to run which could ironically have the effect of creating a female rival or two for Hillary in the nomination fight in 2016. Other possible rivals besides McCaskill could be Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner or Andrew Cuomo if he make a run for governor in 2010. Even Biden's close associate who's filling his seat, Ted Kaufman, has suggested Biden could even run at age 73 in 2016 (That's one year older than McCain was in 2008, but let's not forget he did win the nomination, and had a lot more than his age that cost him the election.) He's not expressed any interest but Al Gore is a few months younger than Hillary and even he could run. Imagine a primary with Gore, Biden and Hillary all competing. In truth, if Gore didn't run in 2004 or 2008, I imagine he's content not to again. I also think that even though Biden would be number 2 if Obama had been re-elected in 2012, he'd only run if polls showed him well ahead. My money is on Hillary as the Democratic nominee in 2016.
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