UPDATE: Now that the 2010 Oscar nominations have been announced, let's see how successful my predictions were, shall we?
In what I consider the nine "main" categories - Picture, Director, Acting categories, Screenplay categories, and Animated Feature - I managed to correctly predict 45 out of 50 nominations, or 90% correct (46 out of 50, or 92% correct, if you count my alternate picks). Easily one of my best years predicting the main category nominations since Mr. Cooper and I started these shenanigans many years ago.
So how about my success predicting the nominations for the full Oscar ballot? Well, certainly not as good as the main categories, but a pretty solid showing nonetheless. For the list of 21 categories (which excludes the three Short Film categories), I managed to correctly predict 81 out of 106 nominations, or 76% correct (84 out of 106, or 79% correct, if you count my alternate picks).
As far as my reactions to the nominations themselves, my biggest disappointment was the absence of an Original Screenplay nomination for (500) Days of Summer, and concerning the Best Picture nomination for The Blind Side......well, all I can say is I was blindsided.
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With less than eight hours to go until the 2010 Oscar nominations are announced, it's time to lock in my predictions. That's right, my predictions are no longer up in the air, so I won't be a basterd and keep them from you any longer. And these predictions are so precious that I've been storing them inside my special locker until tonight. Also...avatar.
Let's do this.
BEST PICTURE
A Serious Man
An Education
Avatar
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Up
Up in the Air
BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
[Alternate: Clint Eastwood, Invictus]
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
[Alternate: Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine]
BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
[Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria]
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, Invictus
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mo’Nique, Precious
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
[Alternate: Penélope Cruz, Nine]
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bob Peterson, Up
Ethan & Joel Coen, A Serious Man
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
[Alternate: James Cameron, Avatar]
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Damien Paul, Precious
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tetchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jesse Armstrong, et al., In the Loop
[Alternate: Anthony Peckham, Invictus]
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up
[Alternate: Monsters vs. Aliens]
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The Young Victoria
[Alternate: Sherlock Homes]
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
The Hurt Locker
The White Ribbon
[Alternate: Invictus]
BEST ART DIRECTION
A Serious Man
Avatar
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
[Alternate: The Lovely Bones]
BEST FILM EDITING
Avatar
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
[Alternate: Star Trek]
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
[Alternate: 2012]
BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
The Hurt Locker
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
[Alternate: Up]
BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
[Alternate: Star Trek]
BEST MAKEUP
District 9
The Road
The Young Victoria
[Alternate: Star Trek]
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
Sherlock Holmes
The Informant!
The Princess and the Frog
Up
[Alternate: A Single Man]
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Almost There,” The Princess and the Frog
“Cinema Italiano,” Nine
“Come Home,” Everybody’s Fine
“I See You,” Avatar
“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Every Little Step
Facing Ali
Food, Inc.
The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
BEST FOREIGN FILM
A Prophet (France)
Ajami (Israel)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Winter in Wartime (Netherlands)
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