My Predictions For The 2008 Presidential Election

On this election eve, I present the above map of my state-by-state electoral predictions for the 2008 presidential election.

I have Barack Obama winning with 364 electoral votes to John McCain's 174 electoral votes, which would be one of the most decisive presidential electoral victories in quite some time. Some notable state predictions: for Obama, a win in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Ohio; for McCain, a win in Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia.

Regarding the popular vote outcome, I predict the following breakdown:

* Barack Obama - 54%
* John McCain - 45%
* Other - 1%

A more detailed popular vote prediction would include the following limits: a 50% chance of Obama winning the popular vote by 6-10%; a 30% chance of Obama winning by a margin less than 6%; a 15% chance of Obama winning by a margin greater than 10%; a 5% chance of McCain winning by any margin.

There you have it. And now, we wait.
.