President-Elect Barack Obama

Pride. Hope. Progress. Change.
Thank you, America.

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The Greatest Sight I've Ever Seen

My wife and I arrived at our polling location at the opening time of 6:00am, and quite frankly we were stunned by what we witnessed.

The voting line was spilling out of the school doors into the parking lot, a parking lot so overflowing with cars that we were forced to park on the main street. Hundreds and hundreds of voters filled the polling location, lines going every which way for each of the different districts. It took us 45 minutes to vote (again, at the 6:00am hour!), which was an admittedly efficient pace given the volume of voters present.

Wake up America, and get to the polls. This day is going to be huge.

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My Predictions For The 2008 Presidential Election

On this election eve, I present the above map of my state-by-state electoral predictions for the 2008 presidential election.

I have Barack Obama winning with 364 electoral votes to John McCain's 174 electoral votes, which would be one of the most decisive presidential electoral victories in quite some time. Some notable state predictions: for Obama, a win in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Ohio; for McCain, a win in Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia.

Regarding the popular vote outcome, I predict the following breakdown:

* Barack Obama - 54%
* John McCain - 45%
* Other - 1%

A more detailed popular vote prediction would include the following limits: a 50% chance of Obama winning the popular vote by 6-10%; a 30% chance of Obama winning by a margin less than 6%; a 15% chance of Obama winning by a margin greater than 10%; a 5% chance of McCain winning by any margin.

There you have it. And now, we wait.
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The Sadness Before The Joy

'Barack Obama's Grandmother Madelyn Dunham Passes Away'

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One More Day...

Can You Hear Obama Now?

From FiveThirtyEight.com, a graph showing Obama's national lead in various polls, with the yellow polls involving both landline and cell phone polling while the gray polls only involving landline polling.

Notice a pattern?

I've been saying this since the primary election ended back in June: polling conducted without the inclusion of cell phone lines is no longer an acceptable standard. Not only has cell phone use largely eclipsed landline phone use for people that still own both, but many of the younger generations have stopped subscribing to landline phone service completely (including myself).

Wake up polling industry, before you end up giving another "win" to Dewey.
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