It's with great caution that any head-to-head match-up polling numbers between presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain and potential Democratic nominees Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton should be evaluated (it's pretty clear, not only from past elections but from common sense reasoning, that once each party has it's nominee and once the general election gets under way, the context of the election can really affect exactly who is up and who is down). That being said, the secondary effect of these polls is the perception that one candidate is "stronger" than another candidate, something that can be rather powerful in these kinds of high-profile campaigns. Taking a look at the most recent head-to-head match ups, there's no doubt that the Obama campaign will be shouting these poll results from the highest mountains, or at least during the upcoming debates in Ohio and Texas.Time (Feb 1-4)
Obama 48 (+7)
McCain 41
Clinton 46 (+0)
McCain 46
CNN/Opinion Research (Feb 1-3)
Obama 52 (+8)
McCain 44
Clinton 50 (+3)
McCain 47
Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Jan 31-Feb 2)
Obama 45 (+2)
McCain 43
Clinton 41 (-4)
McCain 45
ABC/Washington Post (Jan 31 – Feb 1)
Obama 49 (+3)
McCain 46
Clinton 46 (-3)
McCain 49
Fox News (Jan 30-31)
Obama 44 (+1)
McCain 43
Clinton 44 (-1)
McCain 45
Rasmussen (2/04-2/07)
Obama: 47 (+5)
McCain: 42
Clinton: 43 (-3)
McCain: 46
3 comments:
You said it yourself -- these numbers are irrelevant. Bill Clinton was down by a LOT to George H.W. Bush at this time in 1992.
No doubt, like I said, they are pretty irrelevant to the general election reality, but the secondary effect is a perception that can potentially have some impact on the voter decisions of those in upcoming states.
True. Let's hope not.
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