________________________
~~~~ South Carolina ~~~~
~~ Democratic Primary ~~
~~~~~ Predictions ~~~~~
~~ Democratic Primary ~~
~~~~~ Predictions ~~~~~
- Barack Obama - 45%
- Hillary Clinton - 33%
- John Edwards - 22%
Taking into consideration the margin of error and undecided voter figures of recent polling, these are my predictions for the South Carolina Democratic primary. Here are my extremely generalized calculations for such predictions: knowing that the South Carolina Democratic primary electorate is approximately 50% white and 50% African-American, I'm assuming Barack Obama receives approximately 65% of the African-American vote and 25% of the white vote (hence, (.65 x .5) + (.25 x .5) = .48); I'm further assuming that Hillary Clinton receives 25% of the African-American vote and 40% of the white vote, and John Edwards receives 10% of the African-American vote and 35% of the white vote.
Again, these are gross generalizations, but I'm willing to estimate that something relatively like these figures will come out of South Carolina. And, we'll certainly find out just how close my predictions are within the next 24 hours...get out the vote, South Carolina Democrats!
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